Wisconsin Gubernatorial Showcase 2010

Download the WI Governor Candidate Showcase (Updated: Sep 2, 2010)

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August 27, 2010, Rasmussen Poll on Wisconsin’s Governor Race. PAI Analysis:

On August 27, 2010, Rasmussen Reports released its latest poll on the Wisconsin gubernatorial race.  This poll indicates that both Republican candidates remain ahead of Democratic frontrunner Tom Barrett but only by a small amount.  This poll differs from the many others conducted since January 2010, in that Mark Neumann is now statistically polling as the frontrunner.

In a head-to-head matchup, Mark Neumann leads Tom Barrett 48% to 44%, with 3% of voters preferring another candidate.  Conversely, Scott Walker, the WI-GOP endorsed candidate, and the perennial frontrunner, leads Barrett in a head-to-head matchup, 47% to 44%, with 4% preferring another candidate.

As noted, for the first time since polling began in January, Mark Neumann is now the frontrunner in this hotly contested race.  Walker’s percentage of the vote decreased by three points since last month’s poll.  The July 30, 2010, Rasmussen poll indicated that Scott Walker became the first candidate to reach the 50% threshold.  Walker’s decrease in this latest poll was precipitated by a poor performance in the three GOP gubernatorial debates in August, the electorate’s chagrin with establishment candidates and Mr. Walker’s penchant for polemical attacks against his opponent’s character.

Conversely, Mark Neumann’s release of a book detailing his agenda for Wisconsin’s economic growth, coupled with his strong performance in the Republican debates, and the endorsement of former Representative and television pundit Joe Scarborough, has allowed him to nudge past both Walker and Barrett in the ongoing campaign.

The Wisconsin gubernatorial election is poised to be one of the closest and most highly anticipated elections in 2010.  Rasmussen has altered its classification of this race from leans Republican, to “a tossup.”  Barrett’s success in this race stems partly from the fact that Wisconsin, since 1984, has been a Democratic leaning state and partly from the  fact that he lacks a credible primary challenger.   For the fifth consecutive month, it appears as though the Republican Party is poised to win back the statehouse in November.

The August 27 poll, much like the July 30 poll, had a sample size of 750 likely voters.  The August 27 poll, however, despite having a larger sample size than polls conducted in previous months, still fails to meet most polling standards of legitimacy.  If a poll is to be considered an accurate indicator of an electoral outcome, the sample size must exceed 1,500.  None of the Wisconsin gubernatorial polls conducted by Rasmussen, or the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute thus far, have had a sample size of over 750.  A small sample size allows pollsters to judge the mood of the electorate and their feelings on specific candidates, but as aforementioned, may neither accurately predict the outcome of the September 14, 2010, Republican primary nor the November 2, 2010, general election.

As the reader could see from this poll, voter opinions of the three major candidates have changed dramatically in the past month.  The electorate’s view of candidates often fluctuates, due mainly to specific statements made by candidates or their performance in debates.  It is hypercritical to note that polls with sample sizes than 1,500 are purely speculative and lack standing and precision.  The race remains anyone’s match at this point.

As new polls and information on the election become available, PAI will keep you abreast. 

Summary of The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Showcase:

Pax Americana Institute is the first think tank in the state of Wisconsin to spend considerable time on alerting you, the voters, about the 2010 gubernatorial election and its candidates.

In this Candidate Showcase, PAI examines the candidates, primary dates, general election dates, voting polls and, we also provide readers with links to each candidate’s website.  As a non-partisan foundation, Pax Americana Institute will not try to persuade you to support one candidate over another.  Rather, our goal is to provide the voters with information about all of the candidates who are vying for the state’s highest political office in 2010.  This showcase only focuses on those candidates who have declared as of March 20, 2010.

It is the hope of all of us at Pax Americana Institute that you find this Showcase enlightening, engaging, and useful as you make your decision about whom to make the next Governor of America’s Dairy land.