Wisconsin Gubernatorial Showcase 2010

Download the WI Governor Candidate Showcase (Updated: Sep 27, 2010)

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Rasmussen Poll Predicts Scott Walker Victory: 51% v. 43%.  September 19, 2010, Rasmussen Poll

In the first poll released since the primary election, Rasmussen finds that Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker is defeating his Democratic counterpart, Tom Barrett, by eight points, 51% to 43%.  This is Walker’s largest lead in a head-to-head matchup since polling began last January.

Now, with Mark Neumann out of the race, Walker’s percentage of the vote is expected to steadily increase.  Despite the hostility between the two campaigns and their supporters, the vast majority of Neumann supporters are likely to support Scott Walker in the general election.  In fact, Mark Neumann, in his concession speech urged his supporters to support Scott Walker in his bid to win back the governorship.

The September 19, 2010, poll is the first Rasmussen poll to include “leaners.”  Leaners are people who initially indicated no preference for either Scott Walker or Tom Barrett.  Recently, however, many of those who were originally “leaners” have changed course and now support Scott Walker.  Rasmussen indicates that even with “leaners” excluded from the poll, Walker still leads Barrett by a comfortable margin, 50% to 43%.  In every poll conducted since February 2010, Walker has garnered 46-50% of the vote and defeated Tom Barrett in a head-to-head matchup.

In last month’s poll, Scott Walker was only defeating Tom Barrett by one point, 47% to 46%, with Mark Neumann leading the pack at 48%.  As aforementioned, Walker’s increased vote total is a direct result of the primary victory and the support of Mark Neumann supporters.  As a result of Scott Walker’s commanding lead, Rasmussen has categorized this race as leaning Republican.

Since the onset of the campaign, most political pundits and polling firms considered it to be a statistical dead heat, or a toss-up.  Now, with two months to go before the general election, it appears as though Scott Walker and Rebecca Kleefisch are poised to coast to an easy victory in the general election.

In addition to examining the head-to-head matchup, Rasmussen also examines the favorability and unfavorability ratings of the two candidates.  Rasmussen finds that fifty-two percent of voters view Barrett favorably, whereas, forty-three percent have an unfavorable view of him.

Conversely, fifty-eight percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Scott Walker, and just thirty-six percent have an unfavorable opinion of Scott Walker.  From a purely numbers standpoint, it appears as though the Walker-Kleefisch ticket will be victorious on November 2, 2010.  With that being said, the race is far from over, and in Wisconsin, the nation’s preeminent swing state, anything can happen.

Expect the general election to be one of, if not the most visceral gubernatorial election in state history.  Both campaigns are going to spend copious amounts of money on polemical advertisements solely intended to denigrate the record of the opposition.  If both candidates can refrain from negative attacks, their favorability ratings will increase, and voters may no longer loathe politics or political campaign advertisements.

The September 19, 2010, poll, much like those conducted on August 27, 2010, and July 30, 2010, had a paltry sample size; 750 likely-voters.  The September 19, 2010, poll, despite having a larger sample size than polls conducted in previous months, still lacks legitimacy.  If a poll is to be considered an accurate indicator of an electoral outcome the sample size must exceed 1,500.  None of the Wisconsin gubernatorial polls conducted by Rasmussen or the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute thus far, has had a sample size of over 750.  A small sample size allows pollsters to judge the mood of the electorate, and their feelings on specific candidates, but as aforementioned, it will not accurately predict the outcome of the November 2, 2010, general election.  Political Scientists use polls purely to gauge the mood of the electorate, and their views of particular candidates.   The electorates view of candidates often fluctuates, due mainly to specific statements made by candidates, the style of campaign they run, or their performance in debates.

It is hypercritical to reiterate that polls with sample sizes than 1,500 are purely speculative and lack standing and precision.  In addition, the September 19, 2010, Rasmussen poll, much like the panoply of polls conducted previously, relies on likely, not registered, voters.  Likely voters have a much lower participation rate than those who are actually registered to vote prior to Election Day.

PAI recognizes that some citizens register to vote simply because they consider it their ‘patriotic duty’ but never intend to vote.  This group, however, comprises a trivial percentage of the electorate and is often not large enough to influence the electoral outcome.

Lastly, the September 19, 2010, Rasmussen poll has a smaller margin of error than each of the previous polls.  The margin of error for this poll, while a still exorbitant four percent, is still inferior to previously conducted polls.  As aforesaid, an accurate poll has a margin of error of =/-3 percent.  A diminutive sample size, coupled with a high margin of error equates to an inaccurate an unreliable poll.

This poll is excellent for examining the mood of the electorate and the electorate’s views of the individual candidates but is not ideal for indicating the electoral outcome.  As new polls and information on the election become available, PAI will keep you abreast.

Summary of The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Showcase:

Pax Americana Institute is the first think tank in the state of Wisconsin to spend considerable time on alerting you, the voters, about the 2010 gubernatorial election and its candidates.

In this Candidate Showcase, PAI examines the candidates, primary dates, general election dates, voting polls and, we also provide readers with links to each candidate’s website.  As a non-partisan foundation, Pax Americana Institute will not try to persuade you to support one candidate over another.  Rather, our goal is to provide the voters with information about all of the candidates who are vying for the state’s highest political office in 2010.  This showcase only focuses on those candidates who have declared as of March 20, 2010.

It is the hope of all of us at Pax Americana Institute that you find this Showcase enlightening, engaging, and useful as you make your decision about whom to make the next Governor of America’s Dairy land.