The 2012 Presidential Election and the Demise of Public Financing.
Introduction
The 2012 presidential election is poised to become the most expensive in American history. President Obama has indicated that the he intends to rasie $1 billion for his reelection campaign. This paper examines the implications that the decisions made by George W. Bush and Barack Obama to reject public financing during the 2000 primary and 2008 general election will have on the future of presidential campaigns. The passage of comprehensive campaign finance reform coupled with the decisions made by Bush and Obama to reject public financing, revolutionized American politics and contributed to the demise of public financing.
Public Financing, 1974-2008
The public financing of American presidential campaigns was inaugurated by the 1974 amendments to the Federal Election Campaign Act. Corrado (1997) insisted that “the most innovative aspect of the 1974 law was the creation of an optional program of public financing for presidential general election campaigns and public matching subsidies for presidential primary campaigns” (p. 32). Public financing provided candidates with one-for-one matching subsidies for the first $250 the candidate raises from each individual contributor, and it establishes spending limits for both primary and general election campaigns (Malbin, 2009; M. Green, 2002; Samples, 2006). Malbin (2009) suggested that “in the general election the two major party nominees may receive a flat grant that came to $84.1 million in 2008” (p. 1).
According to Malbin (2009) the purpose of federal financing is threefold: allowing the underdog candidates to remain competitive; generating more competition in presidential primaries; and encouraging candidates to broaden their fundraising bases. The public financing system is funded by a $3 tax check-off on individual tax returns (Fleishman, 1975; Malbin, 2009). The number of citizens donating to the presidential election fund has steady declined since the 1980s (Malbin, 2009). In 2008 less than six percent of American taxpayers contributed to the voluntary presidential campaign fund (Malbin, 2009). The remainder of this paper examines the impact that the decisions made by George W. Bush in the 2000 primary and Barack Obama in the 2008 general election to reject public financing, will have on the future of presidential campaigns; and the role fundraising will play in the 2012 presidential election.
Bush, Obama, and the demise of public financing
In 2000, George W. Bush became the first presidential candidate to reject public financing for a presidential primary campaign. J. Green and Corrado (2003) insisted that President Bush’s decision to reject public financing for his 2000 Republican primary campaign revolutionized American politics. Bush (2010) posited that accepting public financing would have limited the amount of money he could spend on his primary campaign, and prevented him from winning the Republican nomination. Public financing forced candidates to abide by spending caps and limited the amount of money they could spend on their campaigns (J. Green & Corrado, 2003; Malbin, 2009; Abramson, Aldrich, & Rhode, 2003). Rejecting public financing allowed candidates to raise unlimited amounts of money and exponentially increase their chances of capturing their party’s nomination (J. Green & Corrado, 2003).
George W. Bush’s decision to reject public financing for the 2000 Republican primary transformed American politics. Parti (2011) found that four years later, George W. Bush, Howard Dean, and John Kerry all rejected public financing for their primary campaigns. What is more, in 2008, Hilary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul all rejected public financing during the primaries (Parti, 2011; J. Green & Kingsbury, 2011). If candidates intend to compete in future presidential primaries or general election campaigns, it will be imperative that they reject public financing (Ceaser, Busch, & Pitney, Jr., 2009; Parti, 2011). Nothing has done more to transform political campaigns than the decisions made by the aforementioned candidates to reject public financing during the primaries.
History was made in 2008 when Senator Barack Obama became the first presidential candidate to reject public financing for the general election campaign. Barack Obama’s decision to reject public financing allowed him to raise more money than any other presidential candidate in history: 742.6 million (Ceaser et al., 2009; Heileman and Halperin, 2010). Had Senator Obama accepted public financing, the amount of money he would have been allowed to spend on his campaign would have been capped at $84.1 million (Ceaser et al., 2009). Ceaser et al. (2009) found that in the final week of the campaign, Obama outspent John McCain, who accepted public financing—by a colossal $100 million. Being that Senator McCain was constrained by public financing, the amount of money he could spend on the get-out-the-vote efforts and television advertisements in key swing states was severely limited (Corrado, 2011; Ceaser et al., 2009). As the reader can discern from the myriad statistics provided, the 2008 presidential election contributed to the demise of public financing.
Barack Obama’s ability to raise nearly $750 million during the 2008 presidential election indicates that public financing is no longer viable (Malbin, 2009; Haynes & Pitts, 2009). If the Republican nominee intends to compete with President Obama in 2012, it will be imperative that they reject public financing (Roarty, 2011). In addition to the demise of public financing, the 2008 presidential election was symbolic in another regard: it proved that candidates will need to raise hundreds of millions of dollars if they intend to win the presidency (Ceaser et al., 2009; Kenski, Hardy, & Jamieson, 2010; Edwards & Wayne, 2010). The profound emphasis placed on fundraising runs counter to the intentions of the Federal Elections Campaign Finance Act of 1971: to limit the influence of money in politics (Magleby, 2010; Boatright, 2009). It is evident from Barack Obama’s near-landslide victory in the 2008 presidential election, that fundraising will be of paramount importance in future presidential elections.
Fundraising and Public Financing in the 2012 Presidential Election
As noted in the introduction, the 2012 presidential election is poised to be the most expensive in American history. Barack Obama has made it abundantly clear that he intends to raise and spend in excess of $1 billion, on his reelection campaign (Allen, 2011; Cillizza, 2011; Kavangh, 2010). According to Open Secrets (2011), Barack Obama has already raised $150 million for his 2012 presidential campaign. In 2008, Barack Obama raised more money than any other candidate in presidential history: $742.6 million (Ceaser et al., 2009; Heileman & Halperin, 2010). Of that total, nearly $600 million came from contributions by individuals (Corrado, 2011; Magleby, 2010; Sabato, 2010).
If Barack Obama is able to raise $1 billion in 2012, it will be difficult for the Republican candidate to compete in pivotal swing states. As aforementioned, in 2008, Barack Obama outspent John McCain in key swing states by $100 million (Boatright, 2009; Schier & Box-Steffensmeier, 2009). If the Republican nominee intends to compete with Barack Obama in 2012, it is imperative that they place a profound emphasis on fundraising.
Roarty (2011) posited that if the Republican nominee intends to defeat Barack Obama in 2012, it is imperative that they reject public financing. By accepting public financing in 2008, the amount of money John McCain could spend in the general election was capped at $84.1 million (Magleby, 2010; Malbin, 2008; Parti, 2011). What is more, Ceaser et al (2009) found that by accepting public financing, McCain was outspent in key swing states (Indiana, 7-1; Ohio, 2-1; North Carolina, 3-2; and Virginia, 4-1). By rejecting public financing, the GOP nominee will be able to raise an unlimited amount of money, and compete with President Obama in each of the aforementioned states.
Perhaps the most important fundraising strategy for the Republican nominee to employ is raising money in small increments. According to Rove (2010), both the Bush and Obama campaigns received copious amounts of money from small donors. Research by Malbin (2008) found that Barack Obama raised $452 million in donations of $200 or less. Four years earlier, George W. Bush raised $256 million from contributions of $200 or less (Ceaser & Busch, 2005; Coffey & Green, 2007; Malbin, 2008). Online fundraising is paramount in American presidential campaigns (Johnson, 2007; Winograd & Hais, 2008). Gingrich (2010) found that in order to defeat President Obama in 2012, the Republican nominee must develop an online fundraising presence, and be able to raise large sums of money in small increments.
By adhering to the three pronged fundraising strategy outlined in this section, the Republican nominee will be able to compete with Barack Obama, and increase their chances of winning the presidency. As the reader can discern from the myriad information provided, Barack Obama’s ability to raise $750 million during the 2008 presidential election, contributed to the demise of public financing. It appears certain that all future presidential candidates, Democrats and Republicans, will eschew public financing. In order to prevail in contemporary presidential campaigns, candidates must raise copious amounts of money.
Concluding Remarks
The decisions made by George W. Bush and Barack Obama to reject public financing, contributed to its demise. It is evident fro, this paper that money is the driving force behind political campaigns and American public policy. The findings of this paper, it is hoped, have provided valuable new insights into the influence of money in politics. Furthermore, the author sought to provide an extensive analysis of fundraising in the 2012 presidential election. The 2012 presidential election will be the most expensive in American history. In order to compete with Barack Obama, conservatives will have to rally behind a candidate, and place a profound emphasis on fundraising. An anemic fundraising campaign by conservatives will guarantee an Obama victory in 2012.
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