Petraeus Has New Approach to Victory in Afghanistan

Recently, General David Petraeus was confirmed as the top military commander in Afghanistan, replacing General Stanley McChrystal.  The architect of the successful counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, General Petraeus will be focused on this single mission, having most recently served as head of United States Central Command, where he was responsible for overseeing the Middle East as a whole. General Petraeus brings with him extraordinary skill and a record of success that demonstrate his capability in leading the new American offensive.

Over the course of the past week, several indications have been given regarding a change in policy and approach to the conflict by U.S. leaders: (1) rules of engagement are expected to be more relaxed; (2) the withdrawal date of July 2011 will be significantly extended; (3) even more resources will be devoted to increasing the Afghan National Security force; and (4) there will be increased emphasis on building local and regional political infrastructure.

In terms of the first major shift in policy, General Petraeus will review existing guidelines for U.S. air and artillery strikes that have minimized civilian casualties but have been criticized by U.S. troops who claim that they are being put in unnecessary danger.

Second, during the Congressional hearing, General Petraeus was clear that President Obama’s timetable to decrease the number of troops by July of 2011 will be only the beginning of a long process of transferring power. This will not be a concrete date that will require immediate withdrawal of American military forces, but rather the beginning of a transition phase.

Third, General Petraeus hinted that he would increase the target number of Afghan national forces to be trained and equipped back to McChrystal’s proposed 400,000.  The Obama Administration had decreased the proposal to 305,000, but General Petraeus stated he would reevaluate this number, suggesting that he considers this number insufficient.

Finally, the fourth key point the general raised in the Congressional hearings was the importance of facilitating the development of local governance within Afghani borders. Because of the broken federal system in place, the national government has a limited effect on the overall stability of the state. Petraeus places great emphasis on increasing the stability of government at its lowest level to allow the nation to rebuild both its political system and a common identity.

The general’s demonstrated military success in Iraq does not necessarily translate into success in Afghanistan. Iraq is a rich nation with an educated middle class.  Battles there were fought primarily in an urban setting. Afghanistan has endured three decades of almost constant warfare, has more limited infrastructure, and faces an insurgency spread across a mountainous countryside. While the American public should remain hopeful that an extremely competent and capable leader has been appointed, it should also be noted that the two wars are largely incongruent and that Petraeus’ strategy might be substantially different from the plan he executed to secure Iraq.

The Foreign Policy section of the Weekly Political Forecast is written by PAI’s Special Analyst for Foreign Affairs.