The Future of Poland: Presidential Elections This Weekend

Last Sunday, acting president Bronislaw Komorowski of the centrist Civic Platform Party won the first round of Poland’s presidential election with 41.2 percent of the vote. Defeating the national conservative Law and Justice Party’s candidate Jaroslaw Kaczynski (the twin brother of the late President Lech Kaczynski), Komorowski must now prepare for a runoff election as mandated by Polish law. Since no candidate won an outright majority of the votes, the top candidates will need to compete head-to-head in a second election on July 4th.

This election has been plagued with an ambiance of depression on both sides. Earlier this year, the late President Kaczynski died in a plane crash near Smolensk in western Russia that killed almost one hundred passengers on board. In addition, President Komorowski’s wife was also a passenger.

Polish economists are concerned that Kacynski would adopt public policies similar to those of his brother, which they fear might isolate Poland in the European Union and hinder the economic freedom and growth that the leader in the polls, President Komorowski, endorses. President Komorowski has demonstrated his commitment to liberal economic policy to the Polish public and strong interest in maintaining prosperous relations with the EU’s major economic and political players—both to combat a large national budget deficit and, ideally, to prepare the nation to adopt the euro within about five years. President Komorowski has also cemented his desire to trim the welfare state. Kaczynski, on the other hand, is staunchly against the adoption of the currency and has expressed distrust of the EU and its key proponents.

Some Polish politicians believe that a Kaczynski win would cause severe instability and political stagnation to a country that currently requires progress more than ever. In addition to Kaczynski’s opposition to privatization of the public sector and endorsement of increased state spending, he has demonstrated a dangerous affinity for nationalism and isolationism from the strongest international organization in the world. Analysts fear that should Poland continue on this path of unilateralism in an increasingly globalized world, the outcome would not be successful.

With hopes of garnering additional support from voters who traditionally align themselves with the Polish left, Komorowski praised the leader of the center-left Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), Grzegorz Napieralski, who won 13.7 percent of the vote even though the polls projected only 3-7 percent. However, because of the left-leaning tendencies of Kaczynski’s political camp, he has also reached out to Napieralski’s party to raise awareness of the similarities on economic policy between the two political parties. These gestures could be indicative of potential for a future of significant political coalitions between either of the presidential candidates and the Polish left.   

The scheduled visit of the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Poland before the final round of elections has been a controversial issue in world politics. The international community is concerned that this trip is designed to influence the outcome of the upcoming election. If the United States is to be seen as an objective contributor to the Polish elections, it needs to ensure it is sending the appropriate signals. Under Polish law, campaigning must end one day before the final election day. By visiting Komorowski the day before the election, Secretary Clinton will be effectively facilitating his circumvention of the law. The U.S. needs to continue its policy of non-partisanship in Polish politics in order to maintain effective relations and support for a mature democracy in Eastern Europe. While the United States might publicly favor one candidate over another, it cannot be responsible for facilitating the bending of Polish law in regards to this election. 

Poland represents a key democratic ally to the United States in a region once dominated by Communism. So long as economic freedom and political liberties are protected by the newly elected head of state, the U.S. will be able to continue its mutually beneficial relationship.

The Foreign Policy section of the Weekly Political Forecast is written by PAI’s Special Analyst for Foreign Affairs.