Feingold Vulnerable in 2010
On June 23rd, Rasmussen Reports, one of the nation’s foremost polling agencies, released its first Wisconsin U.S. Senate poll since little-known political outsider Ron Johnson won the endorsement of the Republican Party late last month. The poll indicates that progressive Senator Russ Feingold is highly vulnerable in 2010.
For just the second time in his political career, Russ Feingold faces a formidable political foe. Ron Johnson, the originator and CEO of PACUR, a world-renowned plastic manufacturing corporation, rocked the political establishment by defeating billionaire real estate developer Terrance Wall and conservative activist Dave Westlake at last month’s Republican state convention. Shortly thereafter, Terrance Wall withdrew from the U.S. Senate race, citing a lack of support from important Republican Party operatives. Unlike Wall, Westlake decided to continue his campaign despite being at a colossal disadvantage. Westlake is poised to take his message of accountability, limited government, and people-centered government to the voters and defeat Ron Johnson in the September 14, 2010 Republican primary.
But if Westlake intends to beat Republican juggernaut Ron Johnson, he must work vociferously to increase his campaign coffer and begin airing campaign advertisements. Westlake’s populist campaign style, coupled with his obsession with the theme of accountability and the sale of blaze orange T-shirts, has made his campaign one of the most unique in American history.
As aforementioned, Rasmussen Reports notes that Russ Feingold is one of the most vulnerable Senators in the 2010 election cycle. The June 23, 2010 Rasmussen poll notes that Russ Feingold has a one-point lead over his Republican challenger, Ron Johnson, 46% to 45%, with a 4.5% margin of error. At the onset of the campaign, most political analysts predicted that Russ Feingold would coast to an easy re-election victory and capture over fifty percent of the vote as he did in his three previous election victories. However, the polls show that in a match-up against the lesser-known Westlake, Feingold’s margin of victory is less than stellar. In a head-to-head matchup, Feingold defeats Westlake, but only by a margin of 47% to 41%. Russ Feingold has a difficult reelection battle on his hands. Feingold’s opposition to the USA Patriot Act, the War in Iraq, and the nominations of John G. Roberts and Samuel Alito to the U.S. Supreme Court, in addition to his staunch advocacy of gun control, same-sex marriage and universal health care, all make him one of the most vulnerable Senators in 2010.
In 1992, Russ Feingold, then a little-known state senator from Wisconsin’s 27th District, defeated Jim Moody, the affluent and well-respected Congressman from Wisconsin’s First District, in the Democratic primary. This upset victory provided Feingold with the momentum needed to defeat the state’s scandal-ridden junior senator, Robert Kasten. Kasten, just twelve years earlier, had shocked the political world by defeating the archduke of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, former governor, and longtime senator Gaylord Nelson. Kasten’s surprising victory was propelled in part by the popularity of Ronald Reagan as well as the electorate’s utter derision of the liberal ideology. Kasten, during his tenure in the U.S. Senate, was an outspoken conservative and a staunch supporter of President Reagan’s agenda. In 1986, Senator Kasten was narrowly defeated by Ed Garvey, after it was reported that in 1985, Kasten was arrested for driving under the influence. Kasten’s political fortunes would hit rock bottom in 1992 when Russ Feingold defeated him, 52% to 46%.
Since his defeat of Bob Kasten in 1992, Russ Feingold has been one of the most liberal activists in the U.S. Senate. Feingold, in his 1992 campaign, pledged to stand up to special interests, balance the budget, and fight for a stronger national defense. But upon getting elected, Feingold violated each of these pledges by accepting PAC contributions, voting against the balanced budget amendment, and voting against the USA PATRIOT Act and the Iraq War. For the first time since 1998, Republicans have an excellent opportunity to unseat Russ Feingold. If they want to be victorious however, it is of paramount importance that they make Feingold’s ultra-liberal voting record the focal point of the campaign. Issues, not personality or past history, are the driving force behind the 2010 elections. For example, the June 23, 2010, Rasmussen Reports poll notes that 58% of Wisconsin voters favor repealing ObamaCare.
In order to unseat Feingold, the Republican Party must make this election a referendum of the Obama administration. Unseating him, however, will not be an effortless endeavor. The Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Committee have already donated copious amounts of money to Feingold’s campaign. Likewise, the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee have donated millions of dollars to the Johnson campaign to ensure his victory over Russ Feingold. If Ron Johnson expects to defeat Russ Feingold, he must make numerous visits to the state’s 72 counties, increase his stature and name recognition, and, most importantly, highlight the differences between himself and Feingold on crucial policy issues.
The National Journal, a preeminent journal of American politics, notes that in 2010, Russ Feingold’s political loyalty score was 99%. Moreover, the Washington Post notes that Russ Feingold votes with his Democratic Party colleagues 90 percent of the time, which proves that Feingold’s priorities lay with the Democratic Party, not his constituents. Ron Johnson’s greatest advantage in the 2010 election is his outsider status. Johnson, if he intends to defeat Feingold, must continue to make his outsider status a focal point of the campaign. Americans are displeased with Washington politics-as-usual and are longing for real change. Incumbents from both parties are highly vulnerable. If Johnson continues to highlight his success in the private sector and his outsider status, he will have an excellent chance of defeating Feingold.
Ron Johnson, despite being a stellar candidate and having impeccable conservative credentials, has a myriad of shortcomings. Johnson’s greatest disadvantage is name recognition. Feingold is an iconic figure in the liberal, progressive community and is well-known nationally. Furthermore, Russ Feingold is the coauthor of one of the most groundbreaking pieces of legislation in American history: the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act, also known as the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act. In order for Johnson to increase his stature and name recognition, he must barrage the airwaves with campaign advertisements and visit each of Wisconsin’s 72 counties. Second, Johnson’s late entry into the race places him well behind both Westlake and Feingold in fundraising. Johnson must raise profuse amounts of money in the months ahead. Third, Johnson is not well versed on the intricacies of American politics or the Senate’s operating procedures. If he expects to defeat Feingold, he must better familiarize himself with the particulars of public policy.
If Ron Johnson can overcome this panoply of disadvantages, he could defeat Russ Feingold in November. Despite his liberal voting record and the anti-incumbent mood of the electorate, Feingold appears poised to win a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. The Wisconsin Senate race is one of the most highly anticipated in the 2010 election cycle. If Ron Johnson highlights his conservative credentials and makes the economy the cornerstone of the campaign, he can defeat Russ Feingold.
The Wisconsin section of the Weekly Political Forecast is written by PAI’s Political Analyst.
