World War IV: Sticks, Stones and Water
World War IV: Sticks, Stones, and Water
By Drew Davis; Executive Director; 10-04-09
Originally Published Here: Capital Newspapers
Einstein once noted, “I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” An eerie prophesy from a man whose many considerations often proved right.
As the international community engages our world’s rogue nation states and non-state actors, the reason for which World War III will be fought seems glaringly self-evident: the proliferation of nuclear or biological weapons and their subsequent dissemination into the hands of terrorists—who would indisputably seek to employ them against the United States or her allies. It is an unfathomably dark forecast we all hope never occurs. World War III may be fought over weapons of mass destruction but what will be the reason for fighting World War IV? The answer: water.
That simple two part hydrogen, one part oxygen molecule has become a two part problem, one part catalyst of conflict. The Department for International Development recently published a water strategy paper entitled “Addressing the Water Crisis.” The report highlighted some numbers that I am sure many of us have heard before: One sixth of the world’s population—approximately 1.1 billion people—remains without access to clean, fresh water sources and two fifths—2.4 billion people—lack hygienic sanitation as a result.
We’ve all come to learn that a lack of access to water cultivates the spread of such miserable diseases as dysentery and cholera and produces a poverty trap from which billions are unable to escape; but how aware are you of the local and regional battles for water sources that have become the norm in Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq or Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan—to say nothing of Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe?
Here, competition for water between villages, cities, and states is growing at an alarming rate and has begun to foment incessant violence and conflict. Global Policy Forum—a clearing house for information on resource-based conflicts—has recently declared that more than 50 countries on five continents will soon be caught up in water disputes unless great steps are taken to reach agreements on sharing reservoirs, rivers, and underground water aquifers. Perhaps there is still a trickle of hope if people were to act now; however, many of them wouldn’t know how to scratch their name into the sand with a stick or stone let alone have the time, ability and foresight to negotiate usage rights. What they can do—what they have done—is take those sticks and pick up those stones and defend to the death what little, muddy, and stagnant waters remain.
In the face of climate change and regional droughts, a continued lack of water in these countries will one day pose a real security risk to international stability. In fact, the Central Intelligence Agency has become so concerned about the effects of heightened competition for natural resources that it has launched The Center on Climate Change and National Security to advise policymakers “as they negotiate, implement, and verify international agreements on environmental issues.” After all, people move with the resources, and as populations shift closer together to draw upon those limited resources, threats arise and conflicts emerge. It will be of great benefit to the United States to keep a vigilant and foresighted eye on these trends and work with humanitarian agencies to prevent further shortages and violence.
How far are you from water right now? Notwithstanding of course you live in the waterpark capital of the world. Is there a bottle sitting next to you? If you’re at home, the kitchen or bathroom sink may only be feet away. At work? Take a stroll to the bubbler or water cooler. If you were living in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, however, you’d awake daily at 4 A.M. for two reasons. One, the immensely painful dysentery has kept you up most the night and you’ve written off the chance for more sleep; and two, if you leave for the last of the billabongs now you may be back before noon to provide the family with a few sips for lunch. The rest of that gallon will be used to cook, clean, and irrigate.
To see “Non-Potable Water” on a truck is enough to make most of us gag. The sad reality is, a third of the world’s population would pick up their sticks and stones and start World War IV for that water.
Drew Davis is a columnist for Capital Newspapers, headquartered in Madison, WI.
